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The Chances of a Good Joust
10/8/2015 em 16:04
Many professional players have been wary of the new jousting mechanic. This is in part due to the fact that Blizzard itself might be too highly valuing their active effects but the mathematical chances of you winning a joust usually doesn't even break 50%.
Let's take a look at deck. Assuming we replace the five mana with arguably the best revealed card that utilizes joust, . Let's calculate your odds of winning that single joust against .
The average mana cost for minions in is 3.5, now compare that to our Paladin deck which is 3.85. Surprisingly, there isn't much of a difference. Yes, cards like and help inflate that and at face value it does look like you have more expensive minions, but you also have a bunch of early game whereas the Warrior relies mostly on a few key minions.
What makes matters worse is that the jouster does not win ties. If you both pull out five mana minions, you lose that joust and all the value that comes with it. Because of this, most decks already start off around a 60-40 chance of losing/winning. Here's every possible outcome of these two decks:
Click to enlarge image.
So you only have a 49% chance of winning the joust, assuming every other minion is in your deck, hasn't been played, and isn't in your hand. Obviously these numbers fluctuate depending on the course of the match, but it still goes to show that you only start with a toss-up at best.
Common sense says that things get better when there's a ton of aggro on the ladder, and that's certainly true, but look what happens when you compare it to .
(Note: We've flipped Paladin to the top and the Handlock to the left).
Click to enlarge image.
Doesn't look so good, eh? There's no world where a highly competitive deck likes to take a 30% chance of working. And keep in mind this is all with the best card with joust we've seen thus far. Imagine how poorly these start to come out when you put in other jousting cards like .
Hint: It doesn't turn out well.
Trump perhaps said it best when he admitted the jousting mechanic isn't one that's good unless the text on the card is fantastic. gives up a one HP heal for +2/+2 in stats over . Compare this duo with others and you'll find that the jousters simply don't stack up to their static brethren. Sadly it looks like jousting simply won't be worth the risk.
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